Sep 2012 - IEEE
"Up to 75% of vehicles will be autonomous in 2040"
"It will take between 15 and 20 years until truly autonomous vehicles populate US roads"
"Will make fully autonomous vehicles available to the consumer by 2020. These cars will be able to drive in urban traffic"
"We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years."
"Fully autonomous vehicles which can drive without human intervention and might not even have a steering wheel could be available on the market by 2025"
"They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person at the wheel in a six-year time frame"
"Next generation of their A8 limousine will be able to drive itself with full autonomy"
"Five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination."
"Fully autonomous driving ... will happen within the next 10 years"
"Estimated that fully autonomous vehicles would be available on the market within 5 years"
"Uber's fleet to be driverless by 2030. The service will then be so inexpensive and ubiquitous that car ownership will be obsolete"
"Fully autonomous Teslas to be ready by 2018 but notes that regulatory approval may take 1 to 3 more years thereafter."
"Driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years"
"Plans to bring first models capable of autonomous highway driving to the market by 2020"
"Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner."
"We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."
"In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
"Large number self-driving self-driving cars will be on the road within three years"
"It’s our ambition to have a car that can drive fully autonomously on the highway by 2021."
"2020 for the autonomous car in urban conditions, probably 2025 for the driverless car."
"first self-driving cars to appear on the market by 2019, not claimed these would be Volkswagen models."
"Most industry participants now think that self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020 or sooner"
"I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year"
"Aims to be operational with fleets of self-driving taxis in 10 cities of the world by 2020"
"Will bring a fully self-driving (SAE level 4) system on the market for use in a variety of cars in 2019"
"Fully self-driving vehicles by 2021 ... expects that it will take several years longer until Ford will sell autonomous vehicles to the public."
"Autonomous vehicle fleets will quickly become widespread and will account for the majority of Lyft rides [by 2021]. By 2025, personal car ownership will all-but end in major U.S. cities."
"By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging."
"By 2021, Ford hopes to have a self-driving vehicle with 'no gas pedal' and 'no steering wheel,' with no need for the passenger to take control 'in a predefined area'"
"The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year."
"At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from? - Elon: 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"
"... possible the company could deliver cars with Level 4 or 5 capacity in 2021."
"November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey."
"Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this."
"It will take no more than four years to have fully autonomous cars on the road."
"I think probably by end of next year end of 2019 self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."
"Probably technically be able to self deliver Teslas to customers doors in about a year then its up to the regulators"
"You know, I think we'll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think."
"We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that."
"We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year"
"We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year."
"I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months... the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year"
"I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year... next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road."
"We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too"
"we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some."
"Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown"
"I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think - I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. There are no fundamental challenges remaining."
"FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should."
"I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%"
"I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year."
"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can't speak for regulators though."
"Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision - not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI."
"Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that's roughly when download button should show up"
"Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding "Download Beta" button to Service section of car display in ~10 days"
"True. Anyone paying attention to the rate of improvement will realize that Tesla Autopilot/FSD is already superhuman for highway driving & swiftly getting there for city streets."
"Gating factor is achieving & proving higher safety with pure vision than with vision+radar. We are almost there. FSD Beta V9.0 will blow your mind."
"Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing."
"Pure vision Autopilot is now rolling out in North America. There will be an update of this production release in 2 weeks, then FSD beta V9.0 (also pure vision) a week later. FSD subscription will be enabled around the same time."
"I think we're maybe a month or two away from wide beta. But these things are hard to predict accurately. The work we had to do for pure vision driving was needed for FSD, so much more progress has been made than it would seem."
"We had to focus on removing radar & confirming safety. That release goes out next week to US production. Then a week or two to polish pure vision FSD & v9 beta will release. Difference between v8 & v9 is gigantic."
"It's looking quite likely that it will be next year! (When will Tesla solve Level 4 FSD?)"
"... in order to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras .... And I think we will achieve that this year."
"... it could be closer to 2035 before we begin to see any meaningful deployments of fully self-driving vehicles"
"Ocado Group to start delivering customer orders using FSD vehicles from 2023"
"This is only speculation, but I think we'll achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year."
"I know I'm the boy who cried FSD... But man, I think we'll be better than human by the end of the year"
"Vehicles capable of performing all tasks equivalent to a human driver will likely not become publicly accessible until after 2035"
"Self-driving cars could be on UK roads by 2026, says transport secretary"
"Robo-taxis expected to become commercially available at a large scale by 2030. Fully autonomous trucking to reach viability between 2028 and 2031."
"Driverless Cars Expected To Serve East Contra Costa [CA] Commuters By 2030"
"I really think lots of car companies should be asking for [full self-driving] licenses. I think that [full self driving] that will become obvious probably this year."
"... it's very clear that that it will actually go to the point where it is far safer than a person driving the car."
"I think we’ll achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year."
"Fully autonomous cars – Levels 4 – could amount to around 2.5% of total sales by 2030."
"We think that we'll be able to have driverless Teslas doing paid rides next year"
"In 10 years, about 30% of privately owned cars will have L2+ and 10% will have L4"